Remote Sensing-Based Multi-Temporal Analysis of Wildfire Impacts in Manavgat, Turkiye (2000-2025)

Abstract

This study provides an integrated, multi-temporal assessment of wildfire dynamics in the Manavgat region (Antalya, Turkiye) between 2000 and 2025 by combining Sentinel-2, Landsat 8/9, MODIS, CORINE/ESA land-cover data, and Sentinel-5P atmospheric observations. The main objective is to quantify long-term vegetation degradation, land-use transitions, fire recurrence patterns, and fire-induced atmospheric anomalies while identifying the topographic and anthropogenic factors that shape fire behaviour. The methodology includes satellite-based spectral index analysis (NDVI, NDMI, and NBR), land-cover classification, topographic modelling (slope and aspect), atmospheric pollutant evaluation (CO and AOD), and spatial overlay of ignition centres with human and geomorphological drivers. Results indicate that wildfire frequency and burned area extent increased sharply after 2008, with 2021 representing an extreme megabore (>75,000 ha). Natural forest cover declined by similar to 35-40%, while urban and tourism-related land use nearly tripled, particularly along the Colakli-Ilica-Sorgun-Kizilagac coastal corridor. Fire severity was highest on south-and southwest-facing mid-elevation slopes, where prolonged drought and wind corridors accelerated fuel drying. Sentinel-5P data demonstrated substantial increases in CO and aerosol optical depth during major fire years, confirming significant atmospheric degradation. Post-fire recovery remained weak in most areas, with persistent NDVI/NDMI deficits and slow regeneration, except on shaded, north-facing slopes. This study contributes to the Mediterranean wildfire literature by presenting a unified, multi-source geospatial framework that simultaneously evaluates vegetation loss, land-use fragmentation, topographic control, and atmospheric impacts. Findings highlight that Manavgat has transitioned into a structurally fire-prone landscape, emphasising the need for proactive, data-driven fire management, sustainable spatial planning, and restoration strategies.