A mathematical fractal-fractional model to control tuberculosis prevalence with sensitivity, stability, and simulation under feasible circumstances

Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis, a global health concern, was anticipated to grow to 10.6 million new cases by 2021, with an increase in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Despite 1.6 million deaths in 2021, present treatments save millions of lives, and tuberculosis may overtake COVID-19 as the greatest cause of mortality. This study provides a six-compartmental deterministic model that employs a fractal–fractional operator with a power law kernel to investigate the impact of vaccination on tuberculosis dynamics in a population. Methods: Some important characteristics, such as vaccination and infection rate, are considered. We first show that the suggested model has positive bounded solutions and a positive invariant area. We evaluate the equation for the most important threshold parameter, the basic reproduction number, and investigate the model's equilibria. We perform sensitivity analysis to determine the elements that influence tuberculosis dynamics. Fixed-point concepts show the presence and uniqueness of a solution to the suggested model. We use the two-step Newton polynomial technique to investigate the effect of the fractional operator on the generalized form of the power law kernel. Results: The stability analysis of the fractal–fractional model has been confirmed for both Ulam–Hyers and generalized Ulam–Hyers types. Numerical simulations show the effects of different fractional order values on tuberculosis infection dynamics in society. According to numerical simulations, limiting contact with infected patients and enhancing vaccine efficacy can help reduce the tuberculosis burden. The fractal–fractional operator produces better results than the ordinary integer order in the sense of memory effect at diffract fractal and fractional order values. Conclusion: According to our findings, fractional modeling offers important insights into the dynamic behavior of tuberculosis disease, facilitating a more thorough comprehension of their epidemiology and possible means of control. © 2024