The impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Prosopis farcta (Banks & Sol.) J.F.Macbr. in Türkiye

Abstract

Background: Climate change is one of the most important environmental factors mediating the changes in the species' distribution. Objective: Prosopis farcta is an important weed in agricultural areas of T & uuml;rkiye, which has increased its density in agricultural and nonagricultural areas. This study estimated the habitat suitability of P. farcta under current and future climatic conditions in T & uuml;rkiye. Methods: Habitat suitability of P. farcta was predicted by using 1169 occurrence records and 8 bioclimatic variables under SSP1-2.6 (mild climate change) and SSP8-5.8 (severe climate change) scenarios by using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Results: According to the results; i) temperature was found to be the most important climatic variable for the distribution of P. farcta, ii) under the current climatic conditions, certain parts of the eastern, southern and western regions of T & uuml;rkiye were found to be potentially suitable and these areas correspond to approximately 40% of country's total land area. iii) According to the projections, suitable habitats will expand towards the interior and northern parts of T & uuml;rkiye in the future due to climate change. The model revealed that the total suitable area could increase by 22%, up to 62%. Therefore, the modeling results support the data obtained from the surveys. Conclusions: It is predicted that P. farcta may spread to different regions of T & uuml;rkiye and cause greater problems due to climate change. Monitoring the changes in P. farcta populations due to climate change and adjusting weed control methods applied may contribute to the development of more effective, climate resilient management strategies.