Climate change trends in the Southeastern Anatolia region of Turkiye: precipitation and drought

Abstract

Drought, earthquake, flood, and fire are disasters whose effects occur after a more extended period than other disasters. Meteorological drought is called the beginning of drought types. In this study, trend analyses and temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and drought index values were carried out between 1981 and 2022 at three meteorological observation stations in the Southeastern Anatolia Region of Turkiye. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Chinese Z Index, and Effective Drought Index methods were used for drought analysis, while Sen's slope, Mann-Kendall, and innovative trend analysis methods were used to detect the trend of precipitation. It was determined that precipitation generally tended to decrease, and drought increased since 1996. Although every type of dry and wet periods has occurred, normal dry periods were observed more. In the spatial distribution of drought, the inverse distance weighted method gives larger areas with more extreme drought and wet values than the Kriging method. The increase in extreme values in the region indicates that the severity of drought will increase. It has been determined that the region's water resources and agricultural activities are under pressure due to climate change and drought.