Mathematical modeling of Ebola using delay differential equations

Abstract

Nonlinear delay differential equations (NDDEs) are essential in mathematical epidemiology, computational mathematics, sciences, etc. In this research paper, we have presented a delayed mathematical model of the Ebola virus to analyze its transmission dynamics in the human population. The delayed Ebola model is based on the four human compartments susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered (SEIR). A time-delayed technique is used to slow down the dynamics of the host population. Two significant stages are analyzed in the said model: Ebola-free equilibrium (EFE) and Ebola-existing equilibrium (EEE). Also, the reproduction number of a model with the sensitivity of parameters is studied. Furthermore, the local asymptotical stability (LAS) and global asymptotical stability (GAS) around the two stages are studied rigorously using the Jacobian matrix Routh-Hurwitz criterion strategies for stability and Lyapunov function stability. The delay effect has been observed in the model in inverse relation of susceptible and infected humans (it means the increase of delay tactics that the susceptibility of humans increases and the infectivity of humans decreases eventually approaches zero which means that Ebola has been controlled into the population). For the numerical results, the Euler method is designed for the system of delay differential equations (DDEs) to verify the results with an analytical model analysis.