Hydroclimatic Change Detection Based on Observations and Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections Under SSP Scenarios

Abstract

This study examines the historical and anticipated effects of climate change on essential hydroclimatic variables (temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture) in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) region of T & uuml;rkiye, a semi-arid and agriculturally significant basin experiencing heightened water stress. The analysis employs a collection of CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCM) and integrates three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), utilizing statistical bias correction methods such as Delta Change, Quantile Mapping (QM), and Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) to improve the regional accuracy of the projections. The ACCESS-CM2 model, validated with data from T & uuml;rkiye's Meteorological General Directorate (MGM), was chosen for comprehensive spatial mapping, utilizing Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation across seven temporal intervals encompassing past, present, and future periods. The findings indicate a steady increase in temperature and evapotranspiration, especially under high-emission scenarios, with temperature rises above +4 degrees C and considerable water losses anticipated by century's end. Soil moisture exhibits a declining tendency, particularly in the southern and eastern regions, signifying increasing drought susceptibility. Precipitation patterns demonstrate significant spatial variability and rising uncertainty, with relative error (RE%) values increasing under SSP5-8.5. Historical data from 1963 to 2022 corroborate these conclusions, indicating a progressive shift towards a warmer and drier regional climate. These observations highlight the importance of climate adaptation strategies and water management in the GAP region. The research provides decision-makers a high-resolution, bias-corrected hydroclimatic dataset.