Study of Monkeypox Virus Transmission Dynamics: Vaccination Effect and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

Monkeypox is an emerging infectious disease from Nigeria that has spread globally, affecting countries such as the USA and the United Kingdom. It belongs to the Poxviridae family under the Orthopoxvirus genus. In this study, we develop a deterministic compartmental model comprising eleven classes: susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, quarantined, hospitalized, and recovered humans, along with susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered rodents. We analyze the disease-free equilibrium and calculate the basic reproduction number using the next-generation matrix approach. Sensitivity analysis identifies critical parameters influencing disease transmission. Numerical simulations conducted in MATLAB demonstrate that increasing vaccination coverage among humans significantly reduces infection prevalence. The results further reveal that timely quarantine and hospitalization effectively control the spread of the virus. Our findings provide quantitative evidence supporting vaccination and control interventions as vital strategies to mitigate monkeypox outbreaks.