Multi-source assessment of drought risk in Lake Eğirdir under climate change

Abstract

In this study, shoreline changes in Lake Eğirdir, Türkiye, were investigated over a 34-year period (1990–2024) through the application of remote sensing, GIS-based coastal analysis (DSAS- Digital Shoreline Analysis System) and statistical trend methodologies. Landsat images and meteorological data are analysed together to evaluate the relationship between climate variability and shoreline dynamics. The findings show that there is a significant shoreline erosion, especially in the northern and western regions, with the End Point Rate (EPR) values reaching −23.6 m/year and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) values reaching −11.23 m/year. According to the results of statistical trend analysis methods (Mann-Kendall-MK and Spearman Rho-SR) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods (sorted and unsorted), while the change in precipitation remained relatively constant, it was determined that the dominant factors contributing to water loss are significantly increasing temperature and potential evaporation (PET) trends. In addition, the most remarkable correlation between lake parameters and PET values is found. This research uniquely combines climate-induced hydrological stressors with shoreline displacement patterns, providing new insights into lake evolution compared to other studies. The results highlight the need for sustainable water management strategies and predictive modeling to mitigate future degradation.