Climatic, geomorphological, and anthropogenic drivers of rural wildfires: A remote sensing and GIS-based case study of the June 2024 Diyarbakir-Mardin events-Turkiye

Abstract

This study investigates the rural wildfires that occurred on June 25-26, 2024, in Cermik and Cinar (Diyarbakir) and Mazidagi (Mardin), Southeastern Turkey. The fires burned approximately 15,000 ha, resulting from a complex interplay of climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors. Rising land surface temperatures reached 45-50 degrees C, while relative humidity dropped below 20 %, creating extreme fire-prone conditions. Human-induced activities, particularly stubble burning and shepherd fires, acted as ignition sources. Remote sensing and GIS-based methods were employed to analyze spatial patterns and fire behavior. Sentinel-2 SWIR imagery, NDVI and NDMI indices, DEMs, and Global Wind Atlas data were combined with meteorological records. Findings revealed that the most affected areas were located between 344 and 800 m in elevation, on slopes steeper than 10 degrees, and predominantly on south-facing aspects. NDMI values declined to below -0.5, indicating severe vegetation moisture loss. Wind speeds of up to 11.8 m/s accelerated fire spread, particularly along the Mazidagi-Cinar corridor. The de Martonne aridity index dropped to 0.8 in June and 0.1 in July, classifying the region as extremely arid, while Thornthwaite water balance analysis showed a net soil moisture deficit exceeding 150 mm. Sentinel-5P data further detected elevated atmospheric pollutants, including CO (0.050 mol/m(2)) and NO2, reflecting intense biomass combustion. These results confirm that rural fires in semi-arid areas are not solely climate-driven but are exacerbated by unsustainable land-use practices. Integrating satellite data and GIS improves wildfire risk assessment and guides effective local fire management. Promoting early warning systems and regulating agricultural burning are crucial to mitigating future disasters.