Evaluation and detection of climate trend via innovative methods

Abstract

Drought, defined as a significant drop in the amount of water available below the average for a time period, causes devastating economic, human, and environmental problems. The temporal and spatial variability of drought must be continuously monitored to apply policies that decrease drought risk and sustain water supplies. This study presents the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for both short (1- and 3-month) and long (12-month) periods, utilizing precipitation and temperature data of Ad & imath;yaman in T & uuml;rkiye from 1963 to 2022. A trend analysis was conducted using the innovative trend analysis (ITA), the improved visualization of the ITA (IV-ITA) star concept with the innovative polygon trend analysis (Star-IPTA) approaches, to identify the temporal fluctuation of drought, temperature, and precipitation in the region. Findings indicate that the trend variation between arid and wet conditions decreased as the time scale increased. While an increasing trend was observed for summer and winter in SPI-3 according to ITA, the ITA trends were nearly indistinguishable for 3-month time scales. An upward trend was detected for temperature in all approaches. The study's findings are anticipated to yield significant insights into recent changes in drought conditions in the region and will assist water management for resource planning.