Nationwide seroprevalence of paratuberculosis in indigenous Turkish goat breeds reveals extensive herd-level circulation and breed-associated risk

Abstract

Paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), imposes substantial veterinary burdens globally, with potential zoonotic implications, yet systematic surveillance in Turkish goat populations has been poorly documented. This study presents the first national, multi-breed cross-sectional serosurvey of MAP infection across seven indigenous Turkish goat breeds (n = 3,372; 36 herds; 11 provinces), employing a commercial indirect ELISA and modified Poisson regression with robust variance estimation to generate prevalence ratios (PRs) directly interpretable as relative risks. Overall apparent seroprevalence reached 14.07% (95% CI: 12.83-15.31%), with herd-level positivity of 93.5%-establishing endemic dissemination across geographically and climatically diverse production systems. Breed-level seroprevalence spanned a 2.66-fold gradient (8.45%-22.47%). Four breeds showed significantly elevated adjusted PRs: Colored Angora (PR = 2.702), Turkish Saanen (PR = 2.571), Maltese (PR = 2.027), and Honaml & imath; (PR = 1.469); three retained significance under cluster-robust estimation. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.031) indicated low within-herd clustering, suggesting that individual-level factors may contribute more to seroconversion outcome than shared herd environment in this dataset. Population attributable fraction analysis identified Turkish Saanen (19.70%) and Maltese (13.77%) as the dominant drivers of national disease burden. The seroprevalence contrast between White Angora (0%) and Colored Angora (22.47%) warrants controlled investigation of differential exposure, management, and potentially breed-specific factors. These findings provide an evidence base for establishing a national MAP control programme for small ruminants in T & uuml;rkiye.