Precipitable water modelling using artificial neural network in Cukurova region

Abstract

Precipitable water (PW) is an important atmospheric variable for climate system calculation. Local monthly mean PW values were measured by daily radiosonde observations for the time period from 1990 to 2006. Artificial neural network (ANN) method was applied for modeling and prediction of mean precipitable water data in Cukurova region, south of Turkey. We applied Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) learning algorithm and logistic sigmoid transfer function in the network. In order to train our neural network we used data of Adana station, which are assumed to give a general idea about the precipitable water of Cukurova region. Thus, meteorological and geographical data (altitude, temperature, pressure, and humidity) were used in the input layer of the network for Cukurova region. Precipitable water was the output. Correlation coefficient (R-2) between the predicted and measured values for monthly mean daily sum with LM method values was found to be 94.00% (training), 91.84% (testing), respectively. The findings revealed that the ANN-based prediction technique for estimating PW values is as effective as meteorological radiosonde observations. In addition, the results suggest that ANN method values be used so as to predict the precipitable water.