Mathematical model of COVID-19 spread in Turkey and South Africa: theory, methods, and applications

Abstract

A comprehensive study about the spread of COVID-19 cases in Turkey and South Africa has been presented in this paper. An exhaustive statistical analysis was performed using data collected from Turkey and South Africa within the period of 11 March 2020 to 3 May 2020 and 05 March and 3 of May, respectively. It was observed that in the case of Turkey, a negative Spearman correlation for the number of infected class and a positive Spearman correlation for both the number of deaths and recoveries were obtained. This implied that the daily infections could decrease, while the daily deaths and number of recovered people could increase under current conditions. In the case of South Africa, a negative Spearman correlation for both daily deaths and daily infected people were obtained, indicating that these numbers may decrease if the current conditions are maintained. The utilization of a statistical technique predicted the daily number of infected, recovered, and dead people for each country; and three results were obtained for Turkey, namely an upper boundary, a prediction from current situation and lower boundary. The histograms of the daily number of newly infected, recovered and death showed a sign of lognormal and normal distribution, which is presented using the Bell curving method parameters estimation. A new mathematical model COVID-19 comprised of nine classes was suggested; of which a formula of the reproductive number, well-poseness of the solutions and the stability analysis were presented in detail. The suggested model was further extended to the scope of nonlocal operators for each case; whereby a numerical method was used to provide numerical solutions, and simulations were performed for different non-integer numbers. Additionally, sections devoted to control optimal and others dedicated to compare cases between Turkey and South Africa with the aim to comprehend why there are less numbers of deaths and infected people in South Africa than Turkey were presented in detail.